The Skilled Trades Renaissance: Rethinking Career Success in the Age of AI
CAVEAT: In our high school program, “Artificial Intelligence for Teens: Living, Learning, Thriving, & Risks,” one of the conversations we have in that program with students focuses on how AI could reshape the job market they will soon be entering. We encourage students to think critically about careers and occupations that have existed for generations, but where some of the tasks traditionally performed by people may increasingly be automated, augmented, or fundamentally changed by advances in artificial intelligence and robotics. Although no one can predict with certainty which jobs will disappear, which new ones will emerge, or how quickly these changes will occur, we believe young people should be thinking about this reality now rather than waiting until they enter the workforce. It was this conversation with students, combined with what we have recently been hearing firsthand from skilled tradespeople, that inspired us to write this article.
Over the past few months, we have had several different skilled tradespeople in our home completing various projects. One thing remained remarkably consistent in our conversations with them, almost every business owner we spoke with said they were struggling to find enough qualified workers to meet the demand for their services. One owner told us that he had so much work available that he was willing to pay his employees double time if they would take on weekend shifts. The problem wasn’t finding customers or work, the problem was finding enough skilled people to do it.
At the same time, artificial intelligence and robotics is beginning to reshape parts of the white collar workforce, automating or augmenting tasks that were once performed exclusively by people. Although no one can predict exactly how AI will affect employment over the coming decade, it is becoming increasingly clear that young people should be thinking about a much broader range of career pathways rather than automatically assuming that a four year university degree and an office job represent the most financially secure route to success.
This is why, when speaking with students today, we increasingly encourage them to take a serious look at the skilled trades. Electricians, plumbers, HVAC technicians, welders, carpenters, mechanics, and other skilled trade professionals perform work rooted in the physical world that remains difficult to automate or outsource. Combine that with an aging skilled trades workforce, projected retirements, existing labour shortages in many regions, and opportunities for entrepreneurship and business ownership, and we believe the trades could offer some young Canadians an increasingly attractive pathway to financial success and long term career security in an AI influenced economy.
The Economics of the Skilled Trades:
According to the Government of Canada’s Job Bank, the national median wage for a plumber is currently about $34 an hour, which works out to approximately $70,700 a year for someone working 40 hours a week (1). For an electrician, the national median is about $35 an hour, or roughly $72,800 a year. For heating, refrigeration and air conditioning mechanics, the national median is even higher at $37.50 an hour, or about $78,000 a year (2). Those are median wages, not necessarily the ceiling. Depending on the province, experience, specialization, overtime, union agreements, and type of work being performed, skilled tradespeople can earn considerably more. In British Columbia, for example, Job Bank reports the high end of the wage range for HVAC mechanics at about $62 an hour (3).
There is another important difference when comparing this path with many university careers, apprenticeship in a trade is built around learning while working. That does not mean becoming a tradesperson is free, there can still be tuition for technical training, tools, equipment, certification costs, and periods away from work. However, apprentices are generally earning income while developing their skills rather than spending four years exclusively in a classroom before beginning their career.
Unlike the traditional four year university pathway, where many students graduate carrying student debt, skilled trades apprentices generally have the opportunity to earn an income while completing their training. Statistics Canada found that 53% of bachelor’s degree graduates in its 2015 cohort had student debt, with a median debt of about $20,000 among those carrying debt (4).
However, the wage is only part of this story. Canada is facing a significant demographic transition within construction. BuildForce Canada projects that the Canadian construction industry will need to hire about 306,200 workers by 2034 when industry growth and retirements are combined. Even after accounting for an estimated 271,900 new workers under age 30 entering the industry, BuildForce projects Canada could still face a shortage of as many as 34,300 construction workers by 2034 (5).
Here in British Columbia, the demographic challenge is particularly interesting. BuildForce Canada projects that approximately 46,700 construction workers, representing about 22% of the province’s current construction labour force, will retire by 2035. The industry is projected to need to recruit about 48,200 additional workers over that period to keep pace with expansion and replacement requirements (6).
Think about what those numbers potentially mean for a young person trying to decide what comes next after high school. Imagine an 18 or 19 year old who enters an electrical, plumbing, refrigeration, welding, carpentry, or another apprenticeship rather than automatically assuming university is their only path to a successful career. They begin earning money while learning their trade. Over the following years they accumulate thousands of hours of practical experience, complete their technical training, earn the appropriate certification, and develop something increasingly valuable, a skill that people and businesses physically need.
AI Can’t Climb Into Your Attic:
Homes will still need plumbing, buildings will still need electricity, and heating and cooling systems will still break. Hospitals, schools, apartment buildings, factories, data centres, commercial developments, transportation infrastructure, and new housing will still require skilled people to build, install, repair, and maintain them.
Many of these jobs also have another interesting characteristic in an increasingly AI driven economy, much of the actual work must be performed in the physical world. Artificial intelligence may help an electrician diagnose a problem, prepare an estimate, schedule employees, order materials, or manage a business, but AI by itself cannot climb into your attic and replace damaged wiring. It cannot physically repair the furnace in your basement or replace the plumbing behind your bathroom wall.
However, there is an important qualification to this argument. Although AI software can’t climb into your attic, AI combined with robotics is beginning to move into the physical world. The skilled trades will not be immune from automation, and we don’t think we should pretend otherwise.
AI and Robotics Are Coming to the Trades Too:
We are already seeing robotics and automation enter construction sites and begin performing some of the repetitive, physically demanding, and time consuming tasks traditionally completed by tradespeople. Robotic systems have been developed to lay bricks and concrete blocks, finish drywall, drill repetitive holes, perform construction layout, and place or tie reinforcing steel. These technologies are not science fiction. Some are already being deployed commercially, while others remain experimental or limited to particular construction environments (7)(8).
For example, Advanced Construction Robotics has developed TyBOT, a robotic system designed to autonomously identify and tie rebar intersections on bridge and other large construction projects. The company has also developed IronBOT, which assists with lifting, carrying, and placing reinforcing steel. These systems demonstrate an important distinction when we talk about automation and the trades, a robot may automate a particular task without eliminating the broader occupation of the skilled person working around it (7).
We are seeing something similar with drywall. Canvas has developed robotic systems that assist with drywall finishing, particularly repetitive aspects of mudding and sanding. Rather than simply removing people from the process, the technology changes how some of the work is performed and what the human worker is responsible for (8).
Robotic masonry provides another example. Systems such as Hadrian X have demonstrated automated block laying using digital building plans, robotics, sensors, and software to position masonry units. What once required virtually every part of the physical process to be performed manually can now, under certain conditions, be partially automated (9).
Even roofing, which presents significant challenges for robotics because of height, changing roof pitches, balance, weather, obstacles, and constantly changing job site conditions, is attracting research into robotic and humanoid systems capable of navigating roofs and performing particular tasks. Much of this work remains experimental, which is an important distinction from suggesting that autonomous robots are about to replace roofers across Canada (10).
This is why we don’t believe the right message to students is, “Go into the trades because AI can’t touch those jobs.” That would simply replace one overly simplistic prediction about the future of work with another. Instead, we believe the better message is that the trades themselves are likely to evolve alongside AI and robotics.
Someone will still need to understand the building, interpret plans, prepare the job site, configure and supervise equipment, recognize when something isn’t being done correctly, troubleshoot problems, perform work outside the robot’s capabilities, ensure finished work complies with building codes and specifications, and take responsibility for the quality and safety of the completed job. As robotics becomes more sophisticated, some of those responsibilities will change, but deep knowledge of the trade itself could become even more valuable when combined with the ability to understand and work alongside these technologies.
It is also important to distinguish this from saying that every tradesperson of the future will need to become a computer programmer. Many modern robotic systems are specifically being designed so that workers don’t need advanced coding skills to operate them. The more realistic skill set may involve knowing how to configure, operate, supervise, troubleshoot, inspect, and integrate these technologies into actual job sites, while still possessing the underlying trade knowledge necessary to recognize when the technology gets something wrong. In other words, automation may remove, reduce, or transform certain tasks within a trade without necessarily eliminating the trade itself.
We believe this could create an interesting opportunity for today’s teens. The electrician, plumber, carpenter, mason, HVAC technician, welder, or other tradesperson who understands both their trade and the emerging technologies being introduced into it could become particularly valuable. The toolbox of tomorrow may contain many of the same tools tradespeople have used for generations, but sitting beside them could increasingly be tablets, sensors, diagnostic software, AI systems, augmented reality, and robotics.
This is another reason we encourage students not to think about their future simply by asking, “Will AI take this job?” A much more useful question may be, “How will AI and robotics change this job, and what skills will I need to make sure I know how to work with the technology?”
It’s Time to Leave the Old Trades Stereotype Behind:
There is also a cultural piece to this conversation that we believe deserves more attention. For generations, there has been a social stigma attached to working in the trades. Historically, tradespeople and manual labourers were often categorized as the “working class,” while university educated professionals were associated with greater social status, prestige, and financial success. There developed an unfortunate perception that working with your hands somehow meant you were less educated, less capable, or destined to earn less than someone working behind a desk. In some families, young people were encouraged to attend university not necessarily because a university education aligned with their interests or abilities, but because the trades were sometimes viewed as the place you went if you weren’t “academic enough” for higher education.
For some, the image of the tradesperson was historically connected to the idea of a low paid worker whose role was to build, repair, maintain, or service things for those perceived to occupy a higher social or economic class. The professional in the office was viewed as having “made it,” while the person arriving in work boots and carrying a toolbox was sometimes viewed as occupying a lower rung on the economic ladder.
That perception is changing, and we believe it should. Today’s skilled trades are very different from that outdated stereotype. Electricians, plumbers, welders, HVAC technicians, heavy duty mechanics, millwrights, carpenters, instrumentation technicians, and many other skilled trades require significant technical knowledge, specialized training, problem solving abilities, certification, and years of experience. Increasingly, these careers also involve sophisticated diagnostic equipment, computerized systems, robotics, digital tools, and artificial intelligence. A modern tradesperson isn’t simply “working with their hands.” They are combining technical knowledge, practical intelligence, technology, experience, and specialized skills to solve real-world problems.
The economics are changing as well. When there are not enough qualified people available to perform work that individuals, businesses, and governments need completed, those skills become increasingly valuable. That creates something previous generations may not have immediately associated with the trades, economic leverage. An experienced tradesperson can earn a strong income, become self employed, build a company, employ others, and potentially create significant personal wealth without necessarily following the traditional four year university pathway.
Rethinking What We Mean by Career “Success”:
Perhaps we also need to reconsider what we mean when we talk to young people about “success.” The electrician maintaining the electrical systems in a hospital, the HVAC technician keeping a school heated during a Canadian winter, the heavy duty mechanic repairing the machinery building our communities, or the plumber keeping the water flowing through an apartment building isn’t somehow occupying a lower rung of society than the person working in an office. They possess a different set of skills, skills upon which the rest of society depends.
We saw a powerful reminder of this during the COVID-19 pandemic when society began talking much more openly about “essential workers.” We were reminded that many of the people who keep our communities functioning aren’t necessarily sitting in boardrooms or corporate offices. They are building, repairing, transporting, installing, maintaining, and fixing the physical infrastructure the rest of us depend upon every day.
Now take this one step further. Suppose that young electrician eventually starts a small electrical contracting company. At first, it might just be one person and a van. Eventually they hire another electrician, then an apprentice, then another crew. They start winning larger residential and commercial contracts. Before long, that individual isn’t simply earning an hourly wage. They own a business with employees, customers, equipment, contracts, recurring revenue, a reputation, and potentially something that can eventually be sold. That is where the economics of the skilled trades can become very interesting and financially very fertile.
The plumber who builds several service crews, the HVAC technician who creates a successful heating and cooling company, or the electrician who moves into commercial construction, industrial systems, automation, renewable energy, EV infrastructure, or data centre work. The carpenter who becomes a general contractor, or the tradesperson who begins buying, renovating, and managing properties using skills they already possess.
None of this guarantees that someone will become wealthy. Starting a business involves risk, competition, insurance, payroll, equipment costs, taxes, regulation, customer acquisition, and plenty of long days. Many trades businesses remain small, and some fail. But the opportunity is real, and it deserves to be presented to young people alongside university and college pathways rather than being treated as a second choice.
The New Generation of Trades Entrepreneur"
What makes this shift even more interesting is how technology is creating new opportunities for the next generation of skilled tradespeople. A new generation of trades entrepreneurs has access to business tools that their parents and grandparents never had. A talented 25 year old plumber today can build a professional website, use social media to reach customers, collect hundreds of Google reviews, automate appointment reminders, use AI to help prepare estimates and customer communications, use software to optimize scheduling and dispatch, accept payments electronically, track inventory, create professional videos showing their work, and market their company across an entire community.
Take traditional craftsmanship and combine it with modern entrepreneurship, technology, digital marketing, AI, and good customer service, and suddenly what might once have remained a one person operation has the potential to become a very different kind of company.
This is also where we believe artificial intelligence makes the conversation particularly interesting. Rather than simply asking which occupations AI might replace, perhaps we should also be asking how AI could make a skilled tradesperson more productive. A plumber isn’t likely to be replaced by a chatbot, but that plumber may use AI to handle administrative tasks that previously consumed hours of their week. A small electrical contractor might use AI to draft customer emails, summarize job notes, help create estimates, produce marketing material, analyze inventory, or organize scheduling. Technology doesn’t necessarily have to compete with the tradesperson. In many cases, it could amplify what that tradesperson is capable of doing.
History Has Shown Us That When Technology Disrupts the Workplace, Adaptability Matters:
History also reminds us that technological disruption in the workplace is nothing new. One of our favourite examples comes from Dorothy Vaughan, whose story became widely known through the book and film “Hidden Figures” (11). Beginning in the 1940s, Vaughan worked at what was then NACA, the organization that would later become NASA, as a human “computer.” Long before electronic computers became commonplace, human computers were highly skilled mathematicians who performed the complex calculations required by engineers and scientists.
However, Vaughan could see that the workplace around her was changing. Electronic computers were beginning to perform many of the calculations that had previously been completed by people like her. Rather than simply viewing this new technology as something that was coming to take her job, Vaughan recognized that her skills would also need to evolve. She taught herself FORTRAN, an early computer programming language, became proficient at programming the very machines that were changing her profession, and helped other women working alongside her develop these new skills as well.
We believe there is an important lesson here for young people entering today’s trades workforce. The lesson is not that everyone needs to become a computer programmer, nor is it that AI will inevitably eliminate large numbers of jobs. We simply don’t know exactly how the labour market will evolve. The lesson is that when technology changes what a job looks like, sometimes the best response is not to compete against the technology, but to learn how to work with it.
This is one of the reasons why we encourage students to think beyond simply asking, “What job do I want when I graduate?” A potentially more useful question might be, “How could technology change the job I want, and what skills can I develop now that will allow me to adapt when it does?” Dorothy Vaughan faced her version of that question more than half a century ago. Today’s students may increasingly face theirs with artificial intelligence and robotics.
University or the Trades? It Doesn’t Have to Be a Competition:
For decades, we unintentionally sent many young people the message that success followed a fairly predictable sequence, that being do well in school, attend university, earn a degree, put on professional clothing, find an office, and begin climbing the career ladder. University remains an excellent pathway for many young people, and Canada absolutely needs doctors, nurses, teachers, engineers, scientists, lawyers, researchers, and other university trained professionals. However, that isn’t the only pathway to personal, professional, and financial success.
In fact, perhaps one of the most important career conversations we can have with young people today is to stop presenting university and the skilled trades as though one represents success and the other represents an alternative for those who couldn’t achieve it. They are different educational pathways leading to different careers.
Some young people would thrive researching in a laboratory, practising medicine, designing software, teaching in a classroom, or working in an engineering firm. Others would thrive building things, repairing things, troubleshooting complex mechanical systems, working with their hands, running crews, operating equipment, or eventually owning the company whose name is written across the side of the truck. Neither pathway should automatically carry greater social status simply because one requires a university degree and the other requires an apprenticeship.
The old stereotype that the trades are where you go because you “couldn’t make it” academically deserves to disappear. Becoming a Red Seal electrician, plumber, welder, carpenter, millwright, refrigeration mechanic, or another skilled trades professional requires education, technical knowledge, practical competency, discipline, and years of training. For some young people, choosing a skilled trade today may actually be one of the most deliberate, educated, and economically informed career decisions they can make.
The Skilled Trades Are Not a Consolation Prize:
The skilled trades are not a consolation prize for a young person who doesn’t go to university. They are legitimate professional careers that can provide good incomes, valuable skills, entrepreneurship opportunities, and pathways to business ownership. As Canada faces a large wave of retirements within the construction workforce and technology continues reshaping other areas of employment, perhaps we should be talking about these opportunities much more often with teens.
Instead of automatically asking every teenager, “What university are you thinking about going to?” perhaps we should broaden the conversation, “What are you good at? What do you enjoy doing? What kind of life do you want to build? Which education, training, apprenticeship, college, university, or entrepreneurial pathway can help you get there?”
For some Canadian teens, the answer might involve a university lecture hall. For others, it might begin with an apprenticeship, a toolbox, and a pair of work boots, and both deserve our respect.
The Skilled Trades, Where Opportunity Meets the Future
The White Hatter
Facts Not Fear, Facts Not Emotions, Enlighten Not Frighten, Know Tech Not No Tech
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